Model validation & actuarial comparisons
The simulator is calibrated against the Social Security Administration's 2026 Trustees Report and compared with reform estimates from SSA's Office of the Chief Actuary. The results below show how closely the simplified projection framework reproduces baseline solvency measures and selected reform effects.
Because the simulator simplifies certain aspects of the Social Security program, not every SSA actuarial projection can be tested directly against the model. The baseline measures and reform estimates that can be meaningfully compared are presented below.
Comparison against SSA's 2026 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions. Actuarial balances are expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll.
| Measure | SSA | Simulator | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| OASI trust fund depletion | 2032 ↗ | 2032 | Same calendar year |
| OASI Actuarial Balance | -4.55% of taxable payroll ↗ | -4.56% of taxable payroll | 0.01 percentage point |
| OASDI Actuarial Balance | -4.42% of taxable payroll ↗ | -4.44% of taxable payroll | 0.02 percentage point |
SSA values link to the 2026 Trustees Report ↗. OASI refers to retirement and survivors insurance; OASDI includes disability insurance.
Change in the 75-year OASDI actuarial balance, in percentage points of taxable payroll. Positive scores improve the balance; negative scores worsen it. Click any SSA score or provision code to open the official detailed estimate.
Simulation assumptions: All simulator results shown below use the default economic assumptions and the SSA Intermediate demographic scenario. Each reform is tested individually against the unchanged baseline, with other policy controls left at their defaults.
| Social Security policy | SSA score ↗ | Simulator | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll tax reforms | |||
| E1.1 Set the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 17.0% beginning in 2027, up from 12.4%; maintain 17.0% thereafter. | +4.47 percentage points | +4.58 percentage points | 0.11 percentage points |
| E1.4 Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax by 0.1 percentage point each year, starting in 2032 and ending in 2051; final rate: 14.4% (2.0-point increase). | +1.47 percentage points | +1.45 percentage points | 0.02 percentage points |
| E1.8 Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax by 0.1 percentage point annually from 2029 through 2034; final rate: 13.0% (0.6-point increase). | +0.55 percentage points | +0.54 percentage points | 0.01 percentage points |
| Taxable maximum reforms | |||
| E2.1 Beginning in 2027, tax 100% of covered earnings at the full 12.4% OASDI rate; provide no additional benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum. | +2.55 percentage points | +2.81 percentage points | 0.26 percentage points |
| E3.2 Starting in 2027, phase up the taxable earnings share to 90% by 2036 (10-year phase-in); provide no benefit credit for earnings newly brought under the cap. | +1.06 percentage points | +1.18 percentage points | 0.12 percentage points |
| Retirement age reforms | |||
| C1.1 For workers turning 62 in 2027 and later, raise the full retirement age by 1 month every 2 years until it reaches 68 (a 12-month total increase). The simulator approximates SSA’s cohort-specific rule. | +0.47 percentage points | +0.66 percentage points | 0.19 percentage points |
| C1.2 For workers turning 62 in 2027–2032, raise the full retirement age by 2 months per cohort year, reaching age 68 for those turning 62 in 2032. The simulator approximates SSA’s cohort-specific rule. | +0.57 percentage points | +0.79 percentage points | 0.22 percentage points |
| Benefit reforms | |||
| B7.2 Starting with individuals newly eligible in 2027, reduce their initial scheduled benefits by 5%; beneficiaries already eligible before 2027 are unaffected. The simulator approximates this new-eligibility restriction. | +0.65 percentage points | +0.56 percentage points | 0.09 percentage points |
| B7.5 Beginning in 2027, increase scheduled benefits by 5% for all existing beneficiaries and all individuals becoming eligible thereafter; retain the higher benefit level in future years. | -0.84 percentage points | -0.76 percentage points | 0.08 percentage points |
Reforms are evaluated individually against each model's baseline. SSA provisions follow the 2026 OCA solvency provisions ↗.